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On a night when the race took another conclusive step toward becoming a general election campaign, both Barack Obama and John McCain spent large swaths of their Tuesday evening speeches focusing on Iraq. But to whose advantage?
The Washington Post's editorial page (hat tip Foreign Policy), which strongly supported the Iraq War, sees ample evidence that Obama will have to shift his Iraq stance. The major reason is the fact that May was the least deadly month of the entire Iraq War, among other security improvements and some of the most optimistic assessments of Bush administration officials yet.
When those details become widely known, it would not be surprising at all to see public opinion polls show a slight favorable shift toward the Iraq War. But it would be surprising to see the Iraq War become popular in any way whatsoever, let alone enough to be of aid to a candidate -- McCain -- whose identity is closely tied to it. Americans love winners, to be sure, and just as surely want success in Iraq. It's just that, after years of lives and treasure consumed for what turned out to be a faulty justification for war, few Americans want to see any more consumed. The proof is in the same polls. Since the surge, the security situation in Iraq has gotten better. And yet, the Iraq War is as unpopular as ever. This question, for an ABC/Washington Post poll, is particularly telling: "All in all, considering the costs to the United States versus the benefits to the United States, do you think the war with Iraq was worth fighting, or not?" Since the beginning of 2007 through mid-April, the percentage of people who answered "worth it" has not crossed 40, and at last count stood at 34.
What's more, the Obama campaign -- whether ingenuously or sincerely -- has left itself options should Iraq's turn for the better continue. Obama's position, and that of all the Democrats who ran, has always been that he will consider the facts on the ground in deciding when or if to pull out troops. The only thing he's truly committed to is not staying in Iraq for 100 years -- a commitment that plays on a remark McCain made about that span of time and that Democrats have been using out of context. That flexibility will make it easier to mitigate any McCain gains if the war continues to move in a good direction.
McCain has little alternative but to try and capitalize on the improving situation in Iraq. He can't run from Iraq, at least not very much, nor has he really tried. But short of a 100% victory, a ticker tape parade and a sudden transformation of the Middle East because of it, it's hard to see how Iraq in 2008 is a political issue that can hurt Obama. |
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